Trump's return might hurt Chinese EV makers

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could pose significant challenges for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers eyeing the US market, according to a detailed report by the South China Morning Post.

Trump's policies, aimed at protecting domestic industries, could escalate tensions over tariffs and hinder the growth of Chinese EV exports, already hit by the Biden administration's tariff hikes, the South China Morning Post report explained further.

Trump has promised to raise tariffs on imports from countries he deems unfair competitors, including China, to safeguard US auto manufacturers. His stance on electric vehicles is also clear: he has vowed to repeal Biden's climate policies and criticized EVs, claiming they “do not work.” Experts anticipate that under Trump, the US will continue to implement more stringent measures to prevent China from dominating the EV sector.

Robert McNally, founder of the Rapidan Energy Group, pointed out that there is bipartisan consensus in the US against China’s growing influence in industries like EVs. This broad political support suggests that Trump's administration will likely adopt even tougher policies to curb China's rise in the EV market.

Chinese EV companies are already feeling the heat

Chinese EV companies have already felt the impact of Biden's tariff increases, which pushed the duty on Chinese EVs from 25 per cent to 100 per cent. These tariffs are part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese exports and safeguard American industries, including the EV market. Trump has signaled his intention to halt subsidies for EVs, including tax credits and rebates, instead focusing on lowering petrol prices, which could make electric cars less appealing to US consumers.

While some Chinese EV makers, like BYD, Nio, and Li Auto, saw their stock prices fall following Biden’s tariff increase, they face further uncertainty if Trump follows through with his promises. However, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and a Trump ally, may help soften the potential backlash, the South China Morning Post report explained further.

Musk’s influence could potentially ease some tensions, as seen by Tesla’s stock surge following Trump’s election win. For Chinese EV companies, options include relocating production to the US, absorbing the tariff costs, or exploring new markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Some manufacturers are already setting up production in regions with lower tariffs, like Mexico and the European Union, which recently imposed tariffs of up to 45.3 per cent on Chinese-made EVs.

Despite these challenges, the US remains a small market for Chinese EVs, accounting for less than 2.5 per cent of total exports. Even with potential setbacks, industry experts believe Chinese manufacturers will continue to develop competitive vehicles.

Further, Trump's economic policies may open up new avenues, such as negotiating factory openings in the US, which could be beneficial for Chinese automakers in the long run. However, as McNally warns, the path ahead for Chinese EVs in the US is uncertain, with "rough seas" expected under Trump’s leadership.