US rolling back its nuclear stockpile even as China doubles down on increasing arsenal

China recently said that it had suspended negotiations with the United States on nuclear non-proliferation and arms control. The move was said to be in response to Washington's weapons sales to Taiwan. The decision comes amid a sharp fall in America's nuclear arsenal, even while China intends to increase its stockpile. 

From the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to the Israel-Hamas conflict, there's a constant fear that a large conflict might escalate from conventional warfare to nuclear warfare. In such a scenario, talks on nuclear arms control become a key factor in maintaining global peace. 

Last year, in November, the US and China held talks on nuclear arms control, and in January, a White House official urged Beijing to respond "to some of our more substantive ideas on risk reduction". 

However, hopes of coming to an understanding were dashed when China's foreign ministry said on July 17 that the US sales of arms to self-ruled Taiwan were "seriously undermining the political atmosphere for continued arms control consultations between the two sides". 

"The US has... continued its arms sales to Taiwan, and taken a series of negative actions that seriously damage China's core interests and undermine political mutual trust," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

"For this reason, China has decided to suspend negotiations with the United States on a new round of arms control and non-proliferation consultations," he added. 

Washington, in June, approved two military sales to Taiwan worth approximately $300 million in total, mostly of spare and repair parts for the island's F-16 fighter jets. 

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Rise in Chinese nuclear arsenal 

As per data by Statista published on July 4, 2024, there were approximately 12,100 nuclear warheads worldwide as of January 2024 and almost 90 per cent of them belonged to two countries: the US (5,580) and Russia (5,044). With 500 warheads, China is on the third spot, but the difference with the US numbers is substantial. 

The US Defense Department said in a congressionally mandated report last October that China was developing its nuclear arsenal more quickly than the US had anticipated. China is likely to have more than 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, which is still less than the US, but the rise is significant. 

China's ambition was evident during the ruling Communist Party's third plenum last week. According to a detailed document of the committee's decisions, the Central Committee pledged to "speed up the development of strategic deterrence forces" - an expression which is normally referred to as nuclear prowess. Beijing's aim to increase its nuclear arsenal is said to be in context with the US, but the stockpile increase is a rising tension for India as well. 

Not just China, President Vladimir Putin has also said that Russia should start producing midrange missiles, which were previously banned under a now-defunct Cold War treaty. Such missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, were previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but Washington terminated the deal in 2019, blaming Russia for not complying with its terms. 

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Fall in US nuclear arsenal since Cold War peak

The latest data by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) revealed that the nuclear warhead stockpile of the US has shrunk since the Cold War peak. 

On July 19, the US government released newly declassified information on the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile to update the information previously released in October 2021. The report includes both active and inactive warheads in possession of the US. 

Notably, the above-mentioned Statista data was based on the survey time period as of January 2024. Meanwhile, the data released by the US Department of State shows the US nuclear weapons stockpile from 1945 through September 30, 2023, which does not include weapons retired and awaiting dismantlement. 

The data shows that as of September 2023, the US had a stockpile of 3,748 nuclear warheads. This number represents an 88 per cent reduction in the stockpile from its maximum (31,255) at the end of fiscal year 1967 and an 83 per cent decrease from its level (22,217) when the Berlin Wall fell in late 1989. 

When it comes to warhead dismantlement, the US dismantled 12,088 nuclear warheads from fiscal years 1994 through 2023. Since, September 30, 2020, the US has dismantled 405 nuclear warheads. Approximately 2,000 additional nuclear warheads are currently retired and awaiting dismantlement. 

The report revealed that the number of US non-strategic nuclear weapons has declined by more than 90 per cent since September 30, 1991. 

(With inputs from agencies)