Crisis deepens as war spreads to south Gaza: Evaluating outcomes against realities

The war expands in south: Humanitarian crisis deepens

As intense fighting spreads to southern Gaza, the people of Gaza being told to evacuate are finding themselves in deeper crisis, as there is no safe place to go. The truce collapsed on December 1, 2023, with both sides blaming each other. Israeli military launched operations in Khan Younis, Gaza's second largest city, declaring it as combat zone and calling it "the most intense day since the beginning of the ground operation", besides continuing strikes on northern Gaza. Hamas too is responding with rocket fire on border cities of Israel to register its existence. Caught in the crossfire, it’s distressing news for hostages and civilians of one of the most populated region of the world, who are blockaded in a land that is left with no safe zones.

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Although, most rational voices condemn the brutal, barbaric, terror attack by Hamas on October 7, and felt Israel's actions against Hamas was justified, but the scale, cost and methodology of Israeli response, causing fourteen times more Palestinian civilian casualties (Approximately over 16000 in comparison to over 1200 Israelis killed so far) and large scale forced displacement of people has invited global criticism including from its closest ally United States, for violation of International Humanitarian Law. The violence and casualties in West Bank are complicating the situation further.

Despite Israel Defense Forces (IDF) maintaining that ‘it doesn’t target civilians’, reports of mounting casualties have caused concern everywhere, including in the USA, which expects Israel to do more to protect civilians in pursuance of its legitimate military objectives in Gaza. 

After US announced new visa ban on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, Israel responded with assurance of being open to "constructive feedback" from the US and the United Nations, without altering the pace and methodology of its operations. 

Opposing strategies and outcomes

As per Netanyahu, Israel’s objective in this war is to eliminate Hamas completely, ensure that its citizens are never again threatened by an attack from Gaza and to ensure release the hostages. He thinks that it can be done by military action and has pulled back Israeli team from negotiations in Qatar. 

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The level of force used and the scale of destruction being caused indicates that his undeclared aim is to make Gaza uninhabitable and force Palestinians out of Gaza, as its extremely difficult to identify Hamas in such heavily populated enclave and selectively destroy the fighters. To minimise own casualties, IDF has chosen the strategy of mass destruction and pulverising targets/buildings alleged to be hideouts of Hamas.

The strategy of Hamas on October 7 was to capture maximum number of hostages to be used as bargaining chip. The embarrassment led to heavy military response from Israel.

Hamas also expected support from Arab countries, radical Islamic countries and organisations and slow down normalisation of relations between some Arab countries and Israel. The objective has not been fully achieved as Arab countries have voiced support to Palestinians and not Hamas. 

In past, Israel has finished wars within days. The 1967 war was finished in six days. Yom Kippur war was done and dusted in 19 days. But the current conflict has been going on for nearly two months. Complete destruction of Hamas is nowhere in sight. In spite of Israeli efforts towards eliminating Hamas, the militant group appears to have survived the initial Israeli onslaught. Only about 5,000 Hamas fighters killed in the conflict out of 30,000 soldiers of its military wing. 

Total elimination of Hamas is overambitious because its an ideology brewed out of subjugation of population confined into bounds of Gaza, with airspace, maritime space, six exit points and inflow of essential services controlled by Israel. 

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With growing hatred towards Israel due to unprecedented casualties, the ideology is unlikely to die down. Moreover, many Hamas leaders are outside Gaza, away from immediate strike range of Israel. They will hence, survive even after possible destruction of Gaza carried out with an aim to annihilate Hamas. While Israel may be able to comb Gaza to reduce striking capability of Hamas. It will make itself and its people more insecure in the long run towards terror attacks within and outside Israel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has rightly warned that failure to protect Palestinian civilians could lead to ‘strategic defeat’.

Who will control Gaza after war?

While Israel is planning to have a buffer zone or a security envelope along Gaza border, inside Gaza to prevent Hamas being positioned on the border, but it may not be easy as world opinion is shifting against Israel and is inclined for the Two-State solution. 

Even Israel’s closest ally USA, which is insisting on two-state solution, has laid down five principles for the future of Gaza, as its vice-president said “No forcible displacement of the Palestinian people, no reoccupation of Gaza, no siege or blockade, no reduction in territory, and no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism”.

The idea of Gaza ruled by the Palestinian Authority (PA) has own drawbacks due to the lack of credibility of PA leaders. There haven't been elections after 2005, and they do not represent the people of Gaza. Governance under a UN stabilisation mission, till elections are held, could be an option, but will Israel agree to completely vacate Gaza remains a question. With angry population, the Israeli occupation of Gaza will be marred by risk of frequent insurgent attacks.   

The Future of Two-State Solution

While Israel and Palestinians both have legitimate right to live, have a homeland, govern and defend themselves, lack of accommodation of these rights within the boundaries of Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip remains a problem that has led to bloodshed for decades. Every peacemaker including the US is talking of two-state solution. But how to divide the landmass into two states? Both sides want East Jerusalem, because Palestinians can’t compromise on al-Aqsa Mosque (Third holiest shrine for Islam) and Jews can’t compromise on Temple Mount or Western Wall (the holiest site in Judaism). 

The complexities of Palestinian enclaves embedded by Israeli settlements in the West Bank and their continued encroachment, makes it impractical for anyone of them to vacate their enclaves, complicating the situation further.

Way ahead

The strong US support to Israel in the initial stages has avoided direct involvement of any other country in the war. Although groups like Hezbollah and Houthis did show some support with standoff attacks. 

The Arab countries have expressed support for Hamas, condemned Israel for violating International Humanitarian laws and excessive civilian casualties, but no one has directly entered the conflict. Considering the responses so far, it appears that this conflict may not expand into larger regional conflict. 

This conflict has further divided the global power blocks with USA and Israel getting increasingly isolated. Most of the world and the UN is raising concerns amid unprecedented casualties and USA seems to be doing damage control internally and externally, short of stopping the Israeli offensive. The number of women and children killed in less than two months has exceeded two years of those killed in Russia-Ukraine War, which violates self-defence logic. 

The war may end with Israeli combing operations in destroyed Gaza. It may also be claimed as victory by Israel. It may work as face-saver for Israeli government, but Israel can neither hope to be safe nor peaceful in the long term. In counter-terror operations, people are centre of gravity. The next generation of Hamas will arise, with a frustrated populace demanding revenge. Until a two-state solution that is acceptable to both parties is reached, the Israel-Palestine conflict will persist, albeit in an active insurgent form, for an extended period of time.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)