Modi 3.0 Military Manoeuvre: Managing China, Courting US

After winning the General Elections 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not give many details about his plans for the third term. However, he emphasised that he would keep working on strengthening the country’s military and its influence. This news will, possibly, please the US and its allies, who are increasingly focused on countering China’s expansive maritime claims and assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Modi told his supporters at the BJP headquarters soon after the election results that his government’s priority would be to boost defence production and exports. He emphasised his goal to enhance security by reducing India’s reliance on imported arms. He announced his intention to make India self-sufficient in the defence sector.

Under Modi, defence co-operation with the US has grown significantly, especially through the Quad security grouping, which also includes Australia and Japan. This relationship is mutually beneficial—the US gets a strong partner close to China, which it considers a significant challenge, while India enhances its defence strength against a much more powerful rival.

“India is now seen as a key frontline state by the Americans,” said New Delhi-based defence analyst Rahul Bedi, according to a report in The Diplomat. The Indian Navy’s role in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) was “crucial”, it said.

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The IOR, encompassing waters from Africa to Australia, is vital for global trade and energy routes. It includes such significant nations as India, Indonesia and South Africa. This region is strategically important for maritime security, economic activities and geopolitical influence, playing a crucial role in global stability and commerce.

When US President Joe Biden congratulated Modi on the election results, strengthening defence relationship was a key point on his agenda. During a call, the two leaders vowed to strengthen Indo-US strategic partnership and promote a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region, according to a White House statement. It also mentioned that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan would soon visit New Delhi to discuss shared US-India priorities with the new government.

The Indo-Pacific region, spanning the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is crucial for global trade and security. It includes such key countries as India, China, Japan, Australia and the US. This area is strategically important due to its economic potential, shipping routes and geopolitical significance in maintaining regional stability.

About a year into Modi’s second term, India’s defence strategy had shifted significantly towards China. This change was prompted by a clash in 2020 between troops from the two countries in Galwan Valley, an area in northern Ladakh, in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed.

“China poses a long-term strategic challenge for India, affecting both its border and its interests in the Indian Ocean,” Viraj Solanki, an expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Diplomat in an interview. This had prompted India to adjust its defence partnerships, with an eye to countering China’s increasing clout in the Indo-Pacific region, he explained.

China was trying to expand its influence and presence in the region through greater engagement with these countries, Solanki said. This was a headache for New Delhi and was likely to result in greater competition in the Indian Ocean in future, he added. Beijing maintains close ties with Islamabad. China has also been boosting defence ties with such neighbouring countries of India as Nepal, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka.

When congratulating Modi on the election results, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said a “healthy and stable” relationship between India and China is beneficial for both countries and supports peace and development of the region. She also mentioned that China was “ready to work with India”, but her comments were much more reserved compared to the Foreign Ministry’s statements after Modi’s win in 2019 before the border clash. Back then, the Foreign Ministry referred to the two countries as “important neighbours” and expressed a desire to “deepen political trust, engage in mutually beneficial cooperation and strengthen the partnership between the two nations”.

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Modi has always governed with his party holding a majority. But, after a weaker mandate in the recent elections compared to the earlier two, he will need to depend on coalition partners and will face a stronger, more energised opposition. The main Opposition party, the Congress, is unlikely to oppose Modi’s defence reforms, but had criticised his handling of the border issues with China and might push him on this matter, Bedi was quoted as saying.

Bedi echoed dissenting voices within the country, saying Modi had not been totally honest about the Ladakh situation. He mentioned a Defence Ministry document briefly posted online and then removed, which indicated that Chinese troops had entered Indian territory during the 2020 clash. The Opposition will, possibly, demand that the government give the true picture.

Under Modi’s military modernisation and reforms programme, his government has aimed to expand the private defence manufacturing sector, earlier dominated by government-run organisations. His government has also relaxed foreign investment rules to encourage companies to set up operations in India. In a major project, India launched its first home-built aircraft carrier in 2022. This is part of a plan to deploy two carrier battle groups to counter China’s growing naval power.

Much of India’s military equipment comes from Russia, but delays in delivery and issues with getting spare parts due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have pushed India to diversify its defence purchases. Now, India was looking more towards the US, France, Israel and other countries, Solanki said. To strengthen ties with India, Washington has agreed to a deal allowing General Electric to work with Hindustan Aeronautics to make fighter jet engines.

At the defence conference, Shangri-La Dialogue, held by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore last weekend, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said India and the US were also co-producing armoured vehicles.

He added that his country’s ties with India were the best it had ever been; it was “really strong”.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)