Only a multi-national peace initiative can arrest the spiralling West Asia crisis

To understand the horrible mess in West Asia, look at it like a high school algebra student trying to solve three simultaneous equations, all equally bizarre.

Israel thinks offence is the best form of defence. Hamas thinks an impetuous attack is an exercise of Palestinian sovereignty. Hezbollah thinks Lebanon is a part of Iran.

As Iran rains missiles and Israel warns of consequences after sending its troops north of the occupied Gaza territory into southern Lebanon, the thing to look for in this madness is the method behind from both sides — or a lack of it.

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From all indications, three undeniable truths might give us a clue about what might happen next.

First up, Israel's retaliation after the October 7 attacks by Palestinian extremist group Hamas into its territory has been strong on both intelligence and a ruthless, relentless military offensive, giving it an undeniable strategic advantage that for all practical purposes looks like victory.

It killed on July 31 Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, right in Teheran, showing Tel Aviv's penetration into the most unexpected quarters. Last week, it assassinated Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah right in its command headquarters in Beirut barely a week after booby-trapping Hezbollah pagers and hundreds of radios that did not alert the Iran-backed Shia militia group the way it should have. The attack eliminated half of Hezbollah's leadership council and ate into its military command.

In contrast, the attack by Hamas on the anniversary of the Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur war of 1973 last year and this week's rain of missiles by Iran show more desperation and bluster than clinical method.

To this asymmetry of military power, we might add a diplomatic situation that has never been as unfriendly to the aspiring state of Palestine as now.

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The United States is openly backing Israel's "right to defence" which is for all practical purposes a disproportionate act of offence turned into an opportunity for treating Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinians and now, Lebanese citizens, as vermin that need to be just trodden upon. European nations, for all practical purposes, are busy treating an uneasy mix of domestic economic woes and immigration troubles. China has just begun reviving its sagging economy with a sharp interest rate cut and Russia has its arms full in Ukraine with a war of its own making. Some claps and cheers from American university students, UN General Assembly speeches critical of Israel and outraged posts on WhatsApp groups are not getting us anywhere.

If there is anything that appears to sound louder than the missiles and bombs flying between Iran and Israel across Gaza and Lebanon, it is the virtual sound of silence from the Islamic world that seems hardly aligned with Iran, Hezbollah or Hamas — while officially standing up for Palestine in elegant diplomatic postures.

Earlier this week, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi called for an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in response to recent Israeli attacks, even before Tel Aviv's soldiers walked into Lebanon. Only a diplomatic agreement between the OIC, China, Russia and some other countries with an enough-is-enough approach can get West Asia somewhere near a ceasefire moment. However, none of these parties show any strong effort to put resources behind their apparent intent to help Palestine or other territories invaded by Israel.

The US is heading into a fiercely contested presidential election next month, and maybe, just maybe, there is a slim chance that the new administration, at least to save for Washington its supposed role as a superpower, does something to stop the madness in its Middle East by going beyond mumbled efforts to ask Tel Aviv for a ceasefire. But that seems unlikely for now since Washington has asked US forces to shoot down Iranian missiles targeting Israel. The US is now part of the war, more or less.

Iran and Hezbollah may vent their anger at Israel, but they seem to have little beyond that. Most of Teheran's missiles have been neutralised mid-air and there is no method in the retaliation apart from a tribalist and tokenist vow of revenge in a cycle of violence that goes back decades if not centuries.

But Israel may have reached its limits in crossing into Lebanon. Officially, Israel says its main objective is to eliminate the threat of an October 7-like incursion by Hezbollah into its northern areas. You can never be sure if the reasons are reasonable or were manufactured to justify an attack in a game in which propaganda or falsification of facts are as much a part of the ammunition as firearms and bombs.

There are those who believe that Netanyahu's far-right coalition allies are pressuring him to do something on the displacement of thousands of Israelis from the north linked to fears that they may face the kind of attacks faced by Hamas victims last October. If the Israeli leader's objective of doing something to please domestic lobbies has been achieved, we can hope for the beginning of something that looks like a ceasefire or withdrawal.

Only an international initiative in which Israel is encircled diplomatically can lead us to a de-escalation of violence and war. Tel Aviv might well respond, since most of its domestic and external objectives, political and military, seem to have been achieved. However, with Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, you never know. They excel in violent urges driven by internal political pressures to show more aggression towards their adversaries, with no sense of proportion, peace, or balance.

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.