Pakistan elections 2024: Army modifies methodology of selecting PM

The results of Pakistan elections 2024 indicate that if free and fair elections had been held, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) under Imran Khan would have come to power, but this was not to the liking of the establishment/deep state (Pakistan Army). It therefore skilfully played its cards well in advance by severing the identity of PTI and disqualifying Imran Khan, forcing PTI members to contest independently to ensure that they do not get the reserved seat quota for women and minority candidates and do not reach a position to form the government in spite of semblance of free and fair election. As the results poured in with PTI-backed independents galloping towards majority, some tweaking was allegedly done by establishment to keep them below the threshold level needed to come to power. PTI supporters seem to be protesting in large numbers.    

In 2024 elections, the establishment smartly played the game differently to ensure that every stakeholder remains well below the threshold level of claiming simple majority to form the government. This gives opportunity to the establishment to stack numbers for chosen prime minister from behind the scene, thus selecting a puppet PM who can be projected as an elected PM globally, but one who can be displaced by the establishment. The current political scene has been masterminded so that no civilian leader of Pakistan can challenge the power of the Army.

Why Pakistani army remains the power centre in Pakistan?

Pakistan is used to being governed by its army since its existence. Out of 77 years of its independence, Pakistan army has ruled the country directly for significant time and for the remaining period it has ruled through a 'selected' PM. 

One of the major reasons has been that with repeated wars since its independence, Pakistan army has been able to sell the narrative that India is its biggest existential threat and army is the only establishment that can save it from such a threat. And so all levers of power must remain with it. The ‘India threat theory’ became more pronounced and convincing to public after humiliating defeat in the 1971 war against India, resulting the country losing East Pakistan as liberated sovereign Bangladesh. Even when not ruling the country directly, the army has always maintained the over-riding authority over nation’s defence, internal security, foreign affairs and more recently over its economy. This will not change in future.

The army’s narrative was backed by exposing corruption of all the politicians at opportune moments as most politicians repeatedly proved their corrupt credentials in public eye, making them unreliable to hold real power. Although army generals are no less corrupt but they have been able to control their own exposure to public, due to absolute hold over all the concerned agencies and establishments, including judiciary. 

Why did Pakistan army dump Imran Khan?

During last election Imran Khan appeared to be the candidate 'selected' by the army. Once he challenged it over some of the issues, the clash started. This ultimately led to PTI supporters actually attacking a few army establishments. The deep state thereafter has been trying out various alternatives to keep him out of power, even if it amounts to dry-cleaning Nawaz Sharif of all his previous wrong doings and pushing him as viable option. The Pakistan army is trying to ensure that it doesn’t face any challenge from politicians. 

The only challenge which the army faces is from terrorist organisations like the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP), the Baluchistan Liberation Army. Such groups in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan are actively attacking the Pakistan army, and this situation will not alter regardless of the outcome of the elections/political settlement. The election doesn’t bring any hope for improvement of internal security situation.

Possible political outcome 

With a hung parliament, despite PTI-backed independent candidates and supporters claiming victory, the PML(N)’s claim of being the largest political party, may well facilitate mustering of the required numbers by encouraging the other political parties and some independents to join. The recent statement of Pakistan army chief indicates a guideline for political parties to get together to form the government. There may be some adjustments, permutations and a combination of power-sharing among the parties concerned, but a weak democratic government at the mercy of the Pakistan army will emerge to face an unprecedented economic and political crisis.

In case the puppet regime fails to resolve the crisis, becomes unpopular or follows the narrative uncomfortable to the army (like improving relations with India or hindering smooth operations of terrorists), the army will have a popular leader like Imran Khan in reserve. One whose image can easily be dry-cleaned (as has been done in case of Nawaz Sharif) and be reinstated through non confidence motion at appropriate time.   

Why USA and China ignore democratic backsliding in Pakistan?

Pakistan's strategic location and it’s control over some of the terrorist groups is still important for United States, in case it has to launch any operation against any terror organisation like Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. USA has supported dictatorship in Pakistan historically to suit its strategic aims in Af-Pak Region and it is used to dealing with Pakistan army directly, closing its eyes to sham democratic credentials of Pakistan. The non-committal statements from US State Department indicate that whichever is the party in power, US will work with it as it knows that finally it will deal with the army/establishment, which will not change. China too needs the strategic space in Pakistan for its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects and finds the army a useful tool as nuisance creator to India through proxy war. Both, USA and China, do not see any political leadership stable enough for long-term engagement and prefer to work with Pakistan army, whom they see as relatively reliable. Pakistan army will continue to ignore international criticism about its treatment to PTI and Imran Khan, with support of P5 member like China.

How Does it Impact India?

The biggest hindrance to peaceful engagement between India and Pakistan is the latter's support to the terror groups against India and its proxy war in Kashmir. All these are part of deliberate strategy of Pakistan army. Strained relations with India increase its relevance in public perception, giving it an excuse to retain all levers of power. The election results and possible political outcome does not change the pivotal role of Pakistan army in any of these matters. In view of that the election outcome does not bring any hope of better relations between India and Pakistan, unless the dire economic and internal situation in Pakistan forces the army to change its stance towards India. Irrespective of the outcome of government formation, Pakistan is likely to remain politically and economically unstable, which is not a good news for the region. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)