Is Holi becoming warmer year on year? This is what scientists say

A recent study has found that since 1970, both March and April became warmer across India, raising the likelihood of uncomfortable and possibly dangerous heat conditions. As a result, in some states, temperatures around Holi (Indian festival of colours) were more likely to exceed 40 degrees Celsius—a rarity in the early 1970s.

The study, conducted by Climate Central, a US-based group of scientists and communicators, analysed daily temperatures from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2023, as reported by PTI.

Here are the findings

According to the study, the northern and western regions of India experienced the most significant warming during March compared to 1970 levels. Jammu and Kashmir exhibited the highest increase in average temperature, at around 2.8 degrees Celsius. In April, warming was more evenly distributed across India, with Mizoram recording the largest increase of approximately 1.9 degrees Celsius since 1970.

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Looking at temperatures around Holi, the study noted that in the early 1970s, only three states—Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar—had over a five per cent chance of experiencing temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in late March. Presently, this count has risen to encompass nine states—incorporating the initial three states, along with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh—with Maharashtra showing a significant 14 per cent probability.

The researchers analysed 51 cities across India and found that 37 of them, or almost 73 per cent, now have at least a one per cent chance of reaching temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius or higher. Additionally, 11 cities have a probability of 10 per cent or more. Bilaspur currently has the highest risk at 31 per cent, which is 2.5 times higher than in the 1970s.

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The main cause of the warmer March and April temperatures is attributed to global warming. The significant release of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has resulted in a rise in global temperatures. The average global temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to the average of the 1850-1900 period, while the average temperature over the Indian subcontinent has risen by 0.7 degrees Celsius since 1900.

(With inputs from agencies)