Another Covid-like deadly pandemic might grip the world in 10 years, says study

Another COVID-19-like pandemic might hit the world in the next decade or so, study by a health intelligence firm noted, claiming that viruses are emerging more frequently.

According to a study by London-based Airfinity Ltd, there is a “27.5 per cent chance” that another deadly virus could grip the world in the next 10 years.

It cited climate change, growth in international travel, increasing populations and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases as major contributors to the frequency of outbreak.

The study, however, pointed out that vaccine rollout and pandemic preparedness would play a key role in reducing fatalities.

The firm observed that if vaccines are rolled out within 100 days of the discovery of a new pathogen, then the likelihood of a deadly pandemic would drop to 8.1 per cent from 27.5 per cent.

"This new risk assessment outlines the likelihood of future pandemics under varying degrees of severity. It shows that in a worst-case scenario, an avian flu type mutation that transmits from human to human could kill as many as 15,000 in a single day in the UK," Airfinity said in a release, according to Bloomberg.

"Our modelling shows that the risk of a pandemic as deadly as COVID-19 in the next 10 years is 71 per cent less with these countermeasures in place," it added.

According to its website, Airfinity Ltd is an independent health intelligence firm that "tracks, predicts and simulates population-level disease outcomes in real-time to inform decisions that can increase the global life span."

Their modelling took note of the lack of vaccines for high-risk pathogens, including Zika, MERS, and Marburg virus.

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"High-risk pathogens including Zika, MERS and Marburg virus don’t have approved vaccines or treatments, and existing surveillance policies are unlikely to detect a new pandemic before it is too late. This highlights the urgent need for new and data-driven pandemic preparedness measures," Airfinity said.

"A robust pandemic preparedness system is the world’s insurance against a Covid-19-like pandemic or something even worse," Rasmus Bech Hansen, Airfinity’s CEO, and co-founder, said in a statement.

It also pointed out towards the potential rapid spread of the H5N1 bird flu strain.

“While so far, just a small number of people have been infected and there are no signs of it having made the jump to human-to-human transmission, skyrocketing rates in birds and increasing incursions in mammals have led to concern among scientists and governments that the virus may be mutating in ways that could make it easier to spread,” it said.

(With inputs from agencies)


 

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