Explained: Is the COVID-19 scare coming back? Here's what you should know

A new variant of coronavirus (COVID-19) has been detected, sparking global concerns among scientists as it has a large number of mutations. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said that they are tracking the new, highly mutated lineage. 

What do we know about BA.2.86? 

The new variant, called BA.2.86, has more than 30 amino acid changes to its spike protein compared with its next closest ancestor, the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron. 

The first was reported in Israel, with the variant since being detected in Denmark and the US, but so far, it is not clear whether or not the new variant spreads faster or causes more serious illness than previous versions. UK-based media outlets reported that the new variant has been detected in London. 

The WHO has classified BA.2.86 strain as a "variant under monitoring" and the health agency added that it needs more data to analyse the threat it may pose. The WHO said that there are only four known sequences of the variant. 

"The potential impact of the BA.2.86 mutations are presently unknown and undergoing careful assessment," the WHO said. 

As quoted by the news agency AFP, Francois Balloux, who is a professor of computational systems biology at University College London, said the attention attracted by the new variant was warranted. 

In a comment published Friday (August 18), Balloux added that "BA.2.86 is the most striking SARS-CoV-2 strain the world has witnessed since the emergence of Omicron". 

The professor referred to the variant that exploded onto the global stage in the winter of 2022, causing a surge in Covid cases. He said: "Over the coming weeks we will see how well BA.2.86 will be faring relative to other Omicron subvariants." 

He stressed though that even if BA.2.86 caused a major spike in infections, "we are not expecting to witness comparable levels of severe disease and death than we did earlier in the pandemic when the Alpha, Delta or Omicron variants spread". 

He said: "Most people on earth have now been vaccinated and/or infected by the virus." Balloux highlighted that even if people were reinfected with the new variant, "immune memory will still allow their immune system to kick in and control the infection far more effectively". 

Stems from 'earlier branch' of Covid 

Another scientist, Dr S Wesley Long, who is a medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist Hospital, said that BA.2.86 stems from an "earlier branch" of the coronavirus. Dr Long explained that that's why it differs from the variant targeted by current vaccines. 

As quoted by the Reuters news agency, he said it remains to be seen whether BA.2.86 will be able to out-compete other strains of the virus or have any advantage in escaping immune responses from prior infection or vaccination. 

Reuters report also quoted Dr Eric Topol, a genomics expert and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, as saying that many countries have drastically reduced testing of patients and their efforts to analyse the genomes of the viruses causing new COVID cases. In that situation, the trajectory of BA.2.86 "doesn't look good right now," given the speed at which new cases are being identified. 

Topol said that its many mutations make BA.2.86 "radically different in its structure" compared to earlier variants and according to him, the main question is whether BA.2.86 will turn out to be highly transmissible. 

Rise in Covid cases globally 

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that a new strain of Covid is also spreading throughout China over the summer. As per the report, it accounts for over 70 per cent of infections but its public health risk remains low. 

The Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on its WeChat account on Saturday that the "proportion of the EG.5 variant among circulating strains of the coronavirus grew from 0.6 per cent in April to 71.6 per cent in August" and also added that it has become the "dominant strain in most provinces in China and is likely to continue this trend". 

"EG.5's prevalence is mainly due to its enhanced ability to escape immunity, reducing the neutralising ability of antibodies produced by previous infections," it added. 

Will vaccines protect against new variants?

A majority of people worldwide are vaccinated now. Long said, "The vaccine is still going to provide you great defense against illness and death." 

Experts have suggested that Covid booster shots now being developed have been designed to target the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5. 

Moderna said preliminary trial data suggest its latest version of the vaccine shows promise against Eris and a related variant called Fornax, which has begun to circulate in the US. 

According to Pfizer Inc, its updated Covid shot showed neutralising activity against the Eris subvariant in a study conducted on mice. 

(With inputs from agencies)

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