G20 summit at Rio de Janeiro: Outcome and impact 

The Group of 20 (G20) annual summits represent a high point in the international calendar, drawing extensive attention globally. The first cycle of summits, which began in 2008, is now ending. The 19th summit in Rio de Janeiro (18–19 November) was a consequential development. It was preceded by the summits hosted by Indonesia and India and will be succeeded by the 20th summit in South Africa next year. 

Significance 

The G20 represents around 85 per cent of the world’s GDP, over 75 per cent of world trade, and around two-thirds of the world's population. Its members include nineteen countries and two regional bodies, the European Union and the African Union. 

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A long series of meetings of working groups, ministers, engagement groups, and other stakeholders prepared the road to the Rio Summit. At the summit, most members were represented by their top leaders. A major exception was Russia; President Putin did not show up. Despite his absence, a world leader whose shadows loomed large on Rio was Donald Trump, the next US President, due to his views on many global issues. How his administration may impact the G20 is an intriguing and debatable subject. 

Rio Declaration 

An honest assessment of Brazil’s year-long presidency and the summit requires a close look at the Rio Declaration, which comprises 85 tightly drafted paragraphs divided into five sections. 

One, G20’s evaluation of the international economic and political situation portrays the present time as one of significant geopolitical, socio-economic, climate and environmental challenges and crises "which require urgent action." The world is nowhere near achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with progress towards only 17 per cent of the SDG targets on track. In keeping with its past record, the group predicted good prospects for a soft landing of the global economy while drawing attention to multiple challenges, some downside risks, and elevated uncertainty. 

It noted the impact of wars and conflicts without referring to nations' responsibility to commence them. In West Asia, the G20 was deeply concerned over the catastrophic humanitarian situation and expressed its unwavering commitment to the two-State solution. 

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On Ukraine, the group was content with referring to discussions in New Delhi and welcoming all constructive efforts for "a comprehensive, just, and durable peace." It stressed the criticality of diplomacy and dialogue in resolving conflicts. On terrorism, it issued a clear message: "We condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations."

Two, anchoring on the Brazilian presidency’s three key priorities, the declaration attributed the highest importance to social inclusion and the fight against hunger and poverty. Noting that the number of people facing hunger in 2023 had increased to 733 million, the leaders witnessed the launch of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty. The innovative approach of the alliance was hailed for “mobilizing finance and knowledge sharing” to support the implementation of “country-led, country-owned, large-scale and evidence-based programmes” to reduce hunger and poverty worldwide. Terming inequalities as having a “negative inter-generational impact,” the leaders detected much potential of digital and emerging technologies to address this challenge.  

Three, 25 paragraphs have been devoted to an exposition of various strands of sustainable development, energy transitions, and climate action. Reiterating the goals of the Paris Agreement, the leaders expressed their resolve to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. They promised timely and structural actions in the national economies and international financing system to accelerate climate action. 

Climate finance is central to success in this respect. Hence, para 43 duly emphasized the need to increase public and private finance, recycling the New Delhi summit’s  formulation of scaling up climate finance “from billions to trillions.”  However, considering that the world took nearly a decade to achieve the target of $100 billion to deal with its climate goals, the talk of trillions of dollars remains unconvincing, especially with the likelihood of the US walking out of the Paris Agreement again. Rio clearly failed to provide guidance on this score to COP29, being held in Baku. G20 is now pinning its hopes on the Sustainable Finance Roadmap and the consensus achieved in the 2024 G20 Sustainable Finance Report. 

Four, the proposed reform of global governance institutions covers several institutions such as the UN, WTO and Multilateral Development Banks (MDSs). The declaration has thoughts on various UN organs, but the Security Council is the most important. Here, the declaration sticks to the formulation approved at the recent UN Summit of the Future. The Security Council needs to enlarge and improve the representation of “underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups” like Africa, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The MDBs received particular attention. Building on the achievements of the Indian presidency, Brazil managed to produce the G20 Roadmap towards “Better, Bigger and More Effective” MDBs. G20 called for its early implementation and periodic progress reports. The paras on reform of the multilateral trade system and WTO lacked novelty. 

Five, Rio envisaged an inclusive and effective G20, welcoming the entry of the African Union as a full member. Leaders commended holding the G20 foreign ministers' meeting at the UN, which was open to all UN members. They applauded Brazil for the G20 Social Summit, which gave non-government stakeholders a unique opportunity to articulate their perspectives. G20 Sherpas have been tasked with evaluating the first cycle of presidencies during South Africa’s presidential tenure and producing a roadmap for future presidencies. 

Assessment 

While a comprehensive assessment of the Rio Summit’s outcomes will need more time and reflection, the following three aspects are noteworthy. 

First, Rio represented a continuation and amplification of the ideas and decisions of the recent summits. Prime Minister Narendra Modi remarked at the summit, “The people-centric decisions taken at the G20 summit in New Delhi have been taken forward during Brazil’s presidency.” The Indian presidency's imprint was visible on several scores. Yet, Brazil left a stamp of its own, especially with the launch of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty and the convening of the Social Summit. The Troika mechanism ensured consistency while affording ample flexibility to the country holding the presidency. 

Second, assessing Rio’s decision-making performance, John Kirton  and Brittaney Warren of the G20 research group at the University of Toronto concluded that the leaders made “174 collective, precise, future-oriented, politically binding commitments.” The number was substantially lower than the 242 made in New Delhi in 2023, the 223 made in Bali in 2022, and the 255 made in Rome in 2021. “It was also below the average of 196 commitments made at each G20 summit from their start in 2008,” they noted. 

Third, after a year-long deliberative process within the G20, decisions are made and announced, but the question is: Can they be implemented? G20 skeptics tend to dismiss the entire exercise as a meaningless ‘annual circus.’ However, G20 optimists and realists recognize the value of G20 as a unique platform that is seriously engaged in crafting solutions for global challenges today. The credibility of G20 will increase further as the constituent member states and international organizations focus on implementing the decisions taken. 

As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres observed before the summit, “I have come to Rio with a simple message: G20 leaders must lead.” 

A global vision and tangible delivery will be the ultimate criteria for judging the G20 in the future.  

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.