Kinetic cyberattacks: Exploding communication devices in Lebanon demonstrate new dimension of warfare

Hezbollah and Lebanon were shocked on 17th September by an unprecedented attack when pagers belonging to its members exploded nearly simultaneously killing 12 personnel, injuring over 2800 (including Iranian Ambassador) with more than 170 in critical condition. The remotely controlled explosions were repeated on 18th September through Walkie Talkies (resulting in nine killed and over 300 injured) indicating that penetration into Hezbollah’s communication network was much deeper than what the group would have ever imagined.  

Various media sources have reported that the explosions were the result of a joint operation between Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, and the Israeli military. While Israel did not comment, both Lebanon and Hezbollah have blamed it for the attack. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate, Lebanon has termed it as 'Criminal Israeli Aggression' and Iran is referring to it as "Israeli terrorism".  

This unprecedented incident exposed the vulnerability and extent to which the communication network of Hezbollah was compromised, following a series of pinpoint targeted assassinations against its commanders. This operation was executed a day after the Israeli cabinet officially added a new goal to its multi-front war of returning thousands of Israelis evacuated from northern Israel due to attacks by Hezbollah to their homes signifying the intention of warding off threats from Hezbollah.  

Prognosis of such a kinetic cyberattack  

As a military operation, It was a complex, covert operation and exceptional intelligence operations including HUMINT, brilliantly executed by the agencies involved in it. It involved not only an intrusion into the communication network of Hezbollah and possibly penetration into its cadres, but also access to such low technology devices like pagers and walkie-talkies of its members, packing them with explosive and remotely controlled devices to ignite them to explode at desired time simultaneously. The impact of explosion was certainly beyond the damages by explosion due to overheating of Lithium batteries by possible cyber-attack. 

It has been reported by the New York Times  that Israel had packed explosives along with a remote controlled switch inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo consigned for Hezbollah. Gold Apollo has clarified that the pagers which exploded in Lebanon, were not manufactured by them but by a European company, BAC, under a licensing agreement that allowed the use of the Gold Apollo brand. These pagers, imported by Lebanon about five months ago, had small explosive materials planted in them, likely by the European manufacturer or another party before distribution, which would be a subject of investigation further.  

Impact of Exploding Communication Devices  

Besides the actual casualties, this incident will put a deterrence in the minds of Hezbollah cadres that any communication device which they use can be risky. They were not using smartphones to avoid the risk of being tracked, but with pagers and walkie-talkies targeted, they will find it difficult to execute operations which require constant communication and coordination. It's fair to assume that Hezbollah will discard remaining pagers and walkie talkies of that consignment, move on to an alternate mode of communications and all groups of 'Axis of Resistance' will carry out a thorough check of their devices in use and cracks in their security architecture, but it will certainly impose caution on all of them. It will certainly cause some disruption and dislocation in Hezbollah fighters and boost morale of IDF and Mossad, after being under domestic criticism for long.  

This attack in Lebanon is the next step in the escalation ladder in the Middle East, as an expansion of war between Israel’s and Hamas in Gaza, and Israeli aggression in West Bank and Syria, shifting focus towards a more formidable adversary in the North. Hezbollah has vowed revenge, Iran is yet to respond to assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in its territory, and Houthis are getting bolder with hypersonic missile strike and some footprints in Syria besides disruptions in Red Sea.  

How does it impact future warfare?

Military strategists across the globe will analyse this operation as a complex, clandestine unconventional, covert operation with advantage of plausible deniability. These operations open a new dimension of warfare, wherein the target country or the organisation can be subjected to heavy casualties by clandestine arming of day to day devices. Earlier Cyber warfare was known to be non-kinetic and non-contact warfare focused on disabling networks, stealing data, or spreading misinformation and such actions. However, this new form of attack introduces a kinetic dimension and contact element, where innovative cyber operations cause physical damage or destruction.  

Last two days in history of warfare will be remembered for merging lines between cyber and contact warfare, lethality of new dimension of cyber-attacks, and integration of the Internet of Things (IoT) and connected devices in military and civilian infrastructure makes them potential targets for cyber-attacks. This will enlarge the target list of opponents to include civilians and infrastructure through their digital devices. The front lines could be everywhere, from battlefield to smart homes to mobile communication systems.  

These incidents also open up a debate on morality and legality aspect of these operations as the innocent looking devices can reach many who are not involved in the conflict, but may become casualty as has been the case with two children in pagers blast. The UNSC seems to be deliberating on it now, having failed to formulate any worthwhile rules for Cyber and related warfare so far.      

Conclusion  

In essence, the emergence of kinetic cyber-attacks, such as exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, marks a turning point in warfare, where digital attacks can result in real-world destruction, making the cyber domain an equally critical and dangerous theatre of conflict. With the advantage of plausible deniability, 'Kinetic Cyber operations' will emerge as new and effective force multiplier for military operations.  

Governments and militaries will need to rethink their cybersecurity strategies, as attacks could now have both digital and physical consequences. This will require tighter security on both military and civilian communication systems, digital penetration and imports from potential adversaries.  

As regards the ongoing conflict, Israel may have shocked Hezbollah and Axis of Resistance with such an innovative and effective kinetic cyber operations, it has expanded the war in a manner that none of its borders is safe.