Trump 2.0: What will his 'revenge cabinet' do to the US and world? Who can stop him?

US President-elect Donald Trump has started his transition ahead of taking the oath of office in January 2025. From the names he suggested for cabinet and other key positions in the White House, it is clear that his second non-consecutive term will try to settle political scores while ensuring protection from court cases. 

Based on the profiles of Team Trump, here is an analysis of how different aspects of government will be impacted, from global wars to domestic security.

Note: This time, most of Trump's nominees will eventually get the jobs, as the Senate and House of Represenatives are also Republican-controlled after the November 5 general election. Only the most controversial nominations might get stuck at committee level in House and Senate. But this article assumes all the names would be final.

WATCH- Trump's Cabinet: Congressman Matt Gaetz Named As Attorney General

ENDING WARS IN UKRAINE AND WEST ASIA

Trump had often claimed during the re-election campaign that he is the only one who can end the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, and prevent World War 3. The time has come for him to deliver. 

He has picked Marco Rubio to lead the State Department. As secretary of state, the Florida Senator will lead efforts to de-escalate the situation. 

Trump also chose Mike Huckabee, a staunch defender of Israel, as the US ambassador to the Jewish nation, which is engaged in a multi-front war with terror groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is also fighting Iran and its proxies like Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other militants in Iraq and Syria. The choice of Huckabee is a clear indication that ultimately, the US will favour Israel's views on ending the conflict.

Also read: Tulsi Gabbard, newly-appointed Trump's spy chief, served in US military for over two decades

But can he really end the war? Trump is averse to the US being dragged into foreign wars, and particularly opposed to paying for them. Also remember that he was the architect of the Abram Accords, the agreements of peace and cooperation between Israel and several of its enemy Arab states. It is quite possible that Trump and his team would be able to start negotiations that could end the war in the Middle East.

The US efforts to end Russia-Ukraine war are going to be skewed in favour of Russia, with Trump having a direct line with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a long time. Trump had been dismissive and critical about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling him the 'greatest salesman'. Don't forget that Trump's first impeachment in 2019 came as a result of his blocking of aid to Ukraine (to force it to investigate the current President Joe Biden). 

The efforts at the United Nations to end the Ukraine war will be led by Trump nominee for US envoy, Elise Stefanik.

Any move by Trump to end the war in a way that could favour Russia would again put him at odds with NATO, which has been helping Ukraine with funds and arms to fight Russia, along with the Biden administration. Trump, in his first term, had wanted the US to cut its contributions to NATO, and pressured its other members from Europe to pay up and level the field on financial contributions to the western military alliance. 

TRUMP'S LEGAL CASES: SHAKING UP THE JUDICIARY AND DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE 

Trump wants to protect himself from conviction and sentencing in the ongoing legal battles, and will try to wind up all of them. 

The cases deal with the 2020 election interference and the 2021 Capitol Hill riot, tax evasion, handling of classified documents, and the Stormy Daniels hush money payment. 

Trump will ensure that presidential immunity is intact, and take more efforts to protect himself from future prosecution once he leaves office.

Trump's picks for key posts in the Justice Department are a clear indication of his intentions. He named Matt Gaetz as the attorney general, thus giving the country's top prosecutor role to a staunch ally. One of the things Trump said Gaetz would do is 'end weaponised government', code for what his surrogates call 'lawfare' against political opponents. 

More interesting is his pick of Todd Blanche as deputy attorney general. Blanche was a defence lawyer for several of Trump's court cases.

Many of Trump's cases are being heard in New York courts. Keeping that in mind, he has appointed Jay Clayton, a loyalist, as the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, a very powerful post within the justice department.

THE BORDER, IMMIGRATION AND HOMELAND SECURITY

Trump made no secret of his hatred for immigrants trying to enter the US from the southern border. He started building a wall in his first term and will continue to strengthen efforts to prevent individuals and caravans from entering or getting asylum in the US. His homeland security secretary pick, Kristi Noem, is going to play a key role in implementing this.

Trump has once said that he would be a dictator 'may be on the first day', and ordering the deportation of illegal migrants could be one of the things he would do on day one or first week in office. 

For this, he has appointed Tom Homan as the border czar who once promised to carry out the largest mass deportation ever by the US.
Homan comes with significant experience, having led the immigration and customs enforcement in the first Trump administration.

SHAKING UP THE INTELLIGENCE ESTABLISHMENT

Trump has been a target of several investigations led by the intelligence establishment, or what he calls the deep state, particularly the classified documents investigation led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. There is even talk that he will clip the wings of FBI with funding cuts. In broader terms, Trump has promised to dismantle the deep state, a reference mainly to the government-intelligence cooperation that led to what he calls a 'witchhunt' during and after his first term in office.

Also read: Trump 2.0: Tulsi Gabbard nominated to head US Intelligence, Matt Gaetz to lead Justice Department
 

Leading the charge would be Tulsi Gabbard, who Trump named as director of national intelligence. Trump also brought back his former DNI John Ratcliffe as the director of Central Intelligence Agency. 

There is speculation that Trump would shake up FBI, with a leadership change and reorganisation of its structure. In his view, the agency was used by Biden administration as a tool to prosecute him.

FUTURE OF AMERICA AT WAR: DEFENCE AND SOLDIERS

Trump has exhibited strong support for American soldiers and veterans, who in turn backed him in large numbers. His opposition to foreign wars is part economic rationale and part isolationalist approach to global security affairs. 

Trump does not want to send American boots to the ground, and had started the process of US troop withrdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan when he left office. 

He might find an ally in his new defence secretary nominee Peter Hegseth, who has seen wars first hand. Hegseth was deployed to Iraq in 2005 and Afghanistan in 2011. Having had no strategic or decision making role in military or national securty affairs, his approach is likely to be more grassroots, with an ear for the concerns of the American soldier than the larger goal of global policing.

This might erode the traditional role of America as the pre-eminent global power the international community looks up to intervene in and resolve conflicts. 

Will the US want to give strategic space to Russia and rising China in this regard? That's an open question for now. Remember, however, that Trump had cooperated with Russia in helping eliminate the Islamic State terror group in the Middle East.

Trump has nominated the controversial Flordia Congressman Mike Waltz as the national security advisor. The former Army Green Beret is a war veteran of Afghanistan and worked as policy advisor to Republican administrations.

Waltz' appointment is also significant in the context of China, a country Trump might want to keep in check. Waltz has been critical of China on various issues like the mistreatment of the Uighur Muslims. He was also an advocate of the theory that the Covid pandemic originated in a Chinese lab.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND WASTE: WILL ELON MUSK CHANGE THINGS?

The appointment of the world's richest man Elon Musk, and Trump challenger-turned ally Vivek Ramaswamy to run a new agency of government efficiency is signficant. Trump wants to protect the upper middle class and the rich from taxes, while reducing government spending, and soverign debt. Musk has promised a trillion-dollar cut in government waste. Trump's Repubican base advocates least amount of goverment invervention in their lives. It would be interesting to see how much waste he is able to cut.

ENVIRONMENT: BACK TO FOSSIL FUELS AND POLLUTING VEHICLES?

Trump has been an ally of the fossil fuel lobby, having taken the US out of the Paris Accord to tackle climate change during his first term. Trump said he would 'drill baby, drill' to bring back America's very old dominance as the top oil producer. This will practically end the commitments to environmental causes. 

For this he has roped in Lee Zeldin, who has no practical experience in the field, to run the environmental protection agency. Zeldin promised to 'restore US energy dominance', meaning back to drilling untapped reserves of petroleum in US and its territorial waters. He also promised, as did Trump, to 'revitalise the auto industry'.

Both these policies appeal to the rust belt America, which is looking forward to a windfall of jobs in the auto and oil sectors. 

HEALTHCARE: WILL BIG PHARMA FACE THE MUSIC?

At the fag end of his first term, Trump and his allies amplified Covid conspiracy theories as the pandemic hit the US. It might even be argued that Covid was a cause of Trump's defeat in the 2020 election. Now, he has appointed as health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, the former Democrat who had openly opposed the Covid vaccination mandate. Will he reopen the Covid files and investigate America's response to it is one question. The other is whether he will take on Big Pharma, which made billions of dollars of profit during the Covid pandemic, particularly through their Covid vaccines.

BUT WHO CAN BLOCK TRUMP?

Roughly half of Senate and the full House of Representatives went into election along with the presidential election on November 5. Senate term is for six years and the House of Representatives' term is two years. This means there will be mid-term elections, and the Congress composition could change in next couple of years in favour of Democrats who can then block Trump's legislative agenda.

This acts as a check and balance system offering legislature's oversight on presidential actions, as much of it (except perhaps presidential orders) will need Congressional approval. 
 
Democrat-chaired committees in the Senate and House could also put a spanner in the works on Trump policies. The other major check mechanism is the Supreme Court, whose nine judges these days have clear political leanings. Currently, the bench has a Conservative tilt, and Trump will get the opportunity to name more judges. Remember that Supreme Court judges can serve till death, and their rulings can impact a generation.

Then there is the media, the fourth pillar of democracy. Besides the Democrats, much of US media is likely to serve as the Opposition. We can expect dirt to be digged up on all his nominees before, during or after they assume office.