A sea of uncertainty: The US-China naval rivalry and the quest for dominance

It seems China may be planning more than just economic conflicts with the United States. Reports suggest the Chinese Navy is preparing to potentially invade Taiwan by 2027. In response, the US Navy is increasing the readiness of its fleet, which has not been involved in major combat for many years.

The US naval fleet, despite its size and advanced technology, may be facing problems. This means even though it is big and modern, there are challenges it needs to address. Across the Pacific, China has rapidly expanded its navy, becoming a significant rival to America’s long-standing naval dominance.

Here is a comparison of the two countries’ naval forces, along with insights from military experts on what could be a decisive factor in a potential conflict.

Chances of US-China conflict

In 2021, Admiral Phil Davidson, leader of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress that China might be planning to invade Taiwan by 2027, according to Popular Mechanics an online media.

If such a move happens, it could lead to a conflict between the US and China. This is because the US has promised to protect the island, which is also called the Republic of China. In 2022, President Biden clearly said the US would protect Taiwan if China tried to invade.

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Although US intelligence has not confirmed the exact plans of China’s Navy to start an attack, it seems the Chinese Navy is preparing the necessary resources for it. Knowing this pushed US military leaders to respond. The time after 2027, called the ‘Davidson Window’, became a key focus in US military planning efforts. The ‘Davidson Window’ refers to a period identified by US military leaders, suggesting that China may be capable of taking military action against Taiwan by 2027. It highlights the urgency for the US to prepare its defences and strategies accordingly.

Both the US and Chinese navies are hurrying to prepare for a possible conflict that may happen in just three years. Considering it takes five years to build an aircraft carrier, three years is a very short time to get ready.

US Navy versus China’s Navy

China has been gradually increasing the size of its naval fleet. However, military strength goes beyond just having more ships. Here’s a summary of how China’s forces stack up against those of the US.

Aircraft Carriers

The strongest vessels in the navies of the US and China are aircraft carriers.

America

The US Navy operates 11 aircraft carriers, with six of them stationed in the Pacific Fleet.

Each aircraft carrier has an air wing with over 70 aircraft. This includes 40 to 44 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-35C fighter jets. They are supported by E/A-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft, E-2D Hawkeye early warning planes and up to 12 utility and anti-submarine helicopters. This creates a powerful air combat team, backed by over 100 years of experience in operating aircraft carriers.

China

China has three aircraft carriers—Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian. These carriers are equipped with Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark fighter jets. These initial ships serve as both fighting vessels and a learning opportunity for the Chinese Navy.

Naval analyst Craig Hooper from The Themistocles Advisory Group, as mentioned in Popular Mechanics, explains that after China launched the Liaoning in September 2012, they began developing various prototypes with the goal of eventually creating carriers comparable to America’s super-carriers. Once China finalizes the design, they are expected to rapidly produce identical carriers, increasing their fleet to at least five, possibly even six.

China’s carriers can only hold about 67% of the aircraft that American carriers can. Additionally, the Chinese Navy is still working on developing the aircraft needed for a well-rounded carrier air wing. Hooper notes that even if China has several large, modern aircraft carriers by 2027, the planes on them will still be in the early stages of adapting to sea operations.

China’s version of a highly coordinated group of specialized military aircraft, such as the US’s E/A-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes and F-35s—which work together to understand and control the battlefield at sea—will not be fully ready any time soon.

Cruisers and destroyers

America

In both navies, the most common ships are cruisers and destroyers. These surface ships are built to protect bigger vessels, track down submarines, or team up with other ships to boost their attack power. Cruisers and destroyers are typically equipped with one or two large guns, 64 to 122 missile launchers, helicopters, anti-submarine torpedoes and close-range defence systems that use both missiles and guns to protect the ship.

By 2027, the US Pacific Fleet is expected to have around 52 cruisers and destroyers in service. The Navy is retiring its cruisers because they are old and worn out, having been in use for over 30 years on average and now needing to be replaced. Each cruiser carries an impressive 122 missile launcher. Without them, the navy will be left with destroyers, which have only 80-96 missile launchers per ship. This number also assumes that the Navy will replace each retiring cruiser with a destroyer.

The remaining Zumwalt- and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are more advanced than Chinese ships. They have 50% more missile launchers per ship and can handle a variety of missions, including fighting against ships, submarines, aircraft and even satellites. The Pacific Fleet will also have two of the three Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers, Michael Monsoor and Lyndon Johnson. Each of these ships will be equipped with 12 hypersonic missiles.

China

The Chinese Navy (PLAN) has a fleet of similar size, with around 50 surface ships, as noted in the Pentagon’s 2023 report on China’s military power. However, despite having a large number of ships, the overall firepower of this fleet is comparatively lower.

The ships include eight Renhai-class cruisers, each equipped with 112 missile launchers. There are also Type 052C and Type 052D destroyers, but these carry fewer missile launchers, between 56 and 64, compared to similar American warships.

The weapons and sensors on these ships have not been tested in real combat as the American systems have. In contrast, the US systems have shown to be very effective in recent operations in the Middle East, successfully defending against kamikaze drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Submarines

America

By 2027, the US Pacific Fleet will have around 23 submarines. This will include Los Angeles-class, all three Seawolf-class and Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines. The fleet also has two guided missile submarines, Ohio and Michigan. Each of these submarines can carry an impressive 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are designed to strike targets on land.

The US Navy is also developing a new version of the Virginia-class submarines, called Block V. These submarines will be able to carry 28 more cruise missiles or a few hypersonic weapons designed for quick, precise strikes.

China

China, meanwhile, has a fleet of 53 attack submarines powered by either nuclear or conventional energy. Chinese submarines are, generally, thought to be one or two generations behind US submarines, but due to lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, they are expected to quickly close that gap.

Russia is giving China military technology in exchange for help with its war in Ukraine. According to Hooper, this support will possibly allow China to start producing more advanced submarines at a faster rate soon. Hooper predicts that, by 2027, China will be working hard to adopt Russian submarine technology and incorporate it into their ongoing prototypes and experiments.

It will be a race to see if China can settle on a submarine design it likes, so it can use its industrial power to quickly modernize its fleet.

The key to winning a war

The US Navy has another advantage in a conflict with China: “America won’t face China alone,” says Hooper. Allies, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia will create significant obstacles for China in naval battles.

Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force has a fleet of 36 destroyers. Two of them, the Izumo and Kaga, are being upgraded to carry F-35B Lightning II fighter jets. It also has a fleet of 24 diesel-electric attack submarines. South Korea operates a fleet of 23 attack submarines and 13 destroyers. Another key ally, Australia, has a fleet of six submarines and three destroyers. Nearly all of these ships, aircraft and submarines are equipped with American weapons, sensors and communication systems. This makes it easier for them to work together smoothly with the US Navy.

Another advantage of America’s alliances is the network of ports and bases throughout the region that can support US ships during a war. Currently, America’s allies in the Pacific are getting ready to assist with the forward deployment of US naval forces.

Thanks to the AUKUS agreement between the US, UK and Australia, Australian workers will assist in maintaining US submarines stationed in the region, says Hooper. Japan has become a leader in offering top-notch maintenance and support for US ships stationed in the region. Both countries would be able to assist the US fleet during times of heightened tension.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: [email protected])