China’s hegemonic ambitions, brazen aggression in SCS: Threat to regional peace, stability, int'l order

China’s hegemonic ambitions and brazen acts of aggression in the South China Sea (SCS) pose significant threats to regional stability and the sanctity of international maritime law. These activities, including the recent interception of a Philippine resupply airdrop to the BRP Sierra Madre on May 19, highlight the urgent need for a robust and collective response to uphold the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and ensure regional security. While the immediate act of barbarism and what amounts to ‘pirate-like’ behaviour has gotten extensive coverage in the media, the strategic perspective is what I would like to pen down.

Personal insights and experiences

Having served in the Indian Navy for almost four decades, I have gained firsthand insight into the evolving maritime dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region. My participation in numerous exercises and diplomatic engagements at various levels has provided me with a unique perspective on the strategic importance of the SCS and the formidable challenges posed by Beijing’s maritime assertiveness, disregard for rule-based order, and hegemonic ambitions.

Historical context of China’s claims

China’s expansive claims in the SCS, encapsulated by the nine-dash line, date back to the early 1950s. This line, stretching over 2,000 kilometres from the Chinese mainland, encompasses nearly the entire SCS, overlapping with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of several Southeast Asian countries. 

Despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling rejecting the nine-dash line, Beijing continues to assert its claims brazenly and aggressively, in blatant disregard of international law and the sovereignty of its neighbours.

Key historical events:

● 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration Ruling: The tribunal rejected China’s historical claims within the nine-dash line, affirming that they have no legal basis under UNCLOS.

● Scarborough Shoal Standoff (2012): China effectively seized control of this strategically vital area, harassing and denying access to Philippine fishing boats.

China’s aggressive actions in the SCS

The interception of the Philippine resupply airdrop to the BRP Sierra Madre exemplifies China’s aggressiveness. Armed Chinese personnel seized and discarded essential supplies, a continuation of a broader pattern of brazen aggression, intimidation and coercion.

Case studies:

● Spratly Islands: China has established a significant military presence, constructing artificial islands equipped with runways, radar systems, and missile installations.

● Paracel Islands: Under Chinese control since 1974, these islands are crucial for their proximity to major sea routes and potential underwater resources.

Violation of UNCLOS

The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes a comprehensive legal framework for maritime activities, crucial for maintaining order at sea. China’s actions, including the interception of resupply missions and the militarisation of disputed territories, blatantly violate UNCLOS principles, undermining peace, regional stability, and the rule of law.

Grey zone warfare: Beyond the visible

China employs grey zone warfare tactics, which operate in the nebulous space between peace and open conflict. These tactics include economic manipulation, influence operations, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns to achieve strategic objectives without triggering full-scale war.

China’s grey zone tactics in the maritime domain

China leverages its Maritime Militia, Coast Guard, and dual-use research vessels to blur the lines between civilian and military operations, pursuing territorial ambitions with minimal risk of direct military confrontation.

The Dark Triad: China's three-pronged maritime strategy

1. Maritime Militia: Known as the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), these ostensibly civilian vessels conduct aggressive operations, such as surveillance, enforcing blockades, and harassing foreign ships.

2. Dual-Use Research Vessels: While conducting scientific research, these ships gather extensive oceanographic data to support the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and enhance maritime surveillance.

3. Coast Guard: The Chinese Coast Guard engages in overt acts of aggression and intimidation, as seen in the harassment of Philippine fishing boats at Scarborough Shoal.

Impact on regional security

China’s actions threaten the sovereignty and security of Southeast Asian nations, disrupting regional maritime security and international trade routes. The militarisation of disputed territories, coupled with aggressive grey zone tactics, escalates tensions and undermines regional stability.

Responses from affected nations

Southeast Asian countries have responded through diplomatic, legal, and military means. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have condemned China’s actions, sought legal recourse through international mechanisms, and increased their military readiness. Joint exercises with allies and public information campaigns have also effectively countered Chinese aggression.

International involvement and support

External powers and like-minded nations such as the United States, Japan, and Australia (also members of QUAD) play a crucial role in balancing China’s ambitions. Their naval presence and joint maritime exercises enhance regional security and support Southeast Asian nations in defending their sovereignty.

Strategies for countering China’s hegemony

Enhancing maritime security cooperation among Southeast Asian nations is essential to counter China’s hegemonic ambitions. Joint patrols, intelligence sharing, and increased defence investments are necessary to build regional resilience. Public information campaigns highlighting Chinese aggression can garner international support and pressure Beijing to adhere to international norms.

Rethinking the South China Sea in Indian Maritime Security Strategy

India’s strategic and economic interests in the SCS are growing, driven by significant trade routes and joint hydrocarbon exploration projects. The Indian Navy has increased its presence in the region, reflecting India’s commitment to regional peace, stability, rules-based order, and freedom of navigation.

Challenges:

● Intra-ASEAN Divisions: Diverse interests among ASEAN members complicate a unified stance against China.

● China’s Economic Influence: China’s significant economic footprint in the region hinders efforts to counter its dominance.

Policy recommendations and future projections

Given the complexities of the SCS, a multi-faceted approach is required.

Policy Recommendations:

1. Strengthen Regional Alliances: Foster stronger ties with ASEAN nations through regional naval exercises, capacity building, intelligence sharing, and defence cooperation.

2. Enhance Maritime Domain Awareness: Invest in advanced maritime surveillance technologies and collaborate with international partners.

3. Increase Economic Engagement: Deepen economic ties with Southeast Asian nations through trade agreements and joint ventures.

4. Promote Rule of Law: Advocate for adherence to international maritime law and support legal actions challenging China's claims.

Future Projections:

● Persistent Aggression: China’s aggressive posture in the SCS will likely continue, driven by strategic and economic interests.

● International Pressure: Regional and international pressure and strengthened alliances can mitigate risks and promote stability.

● Strategic Partnerships: Ongoing diplomatic efforts and strategic partnerships will be crucial in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Upholding the rule of law

A rules-based international order is crucial for maintaining peace and stability in the SCS. Regional and international stakeholders must unite against China’s coercive tactics and uphold the principles of UNCLOS. Vigilance, solidarity, and persistent engagement are crucial to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

China’s brazen acts of aggression and grey zone tactics in the SCS involving its Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia, and dual-use research vessels, pose significant threats to regional stability and international maritime law. 

By understanding and countering China’s grey zone warfare, the international community can uphold the sovereignty of nations and maintain a rules-based order in the maritime domain. The time to act is now, for the region’s peace, stability and the integrity of international law depend on our collective resolve and action. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)