Decoding the Trump assassination bid: Why the world should worry about a Divided States of America

In trying to analyse events such as the failed assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump, it is best to look not just at what happened but the circumstances in which it did. As conspiracy theories float amid a bitter contest between Republican Trump and incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden, what is clearly evident is that we have a perfect storm of sorts in US politics -- and by extension, global politics. 

A perfect storm, idiomatically speaking, refers to a particularly bad situation caused by a combination of unfavourable circumstances. That description now fits the Democrats more than the Republicans but those swearing by Biden (they are a dwindling but loud number) will wave their flags to say the very assassination attempt shows what is wrong with an America ruled by Republicans, in which there is no control on a gun culture in which random individuals, including depressed or deranged schoolkids, go on trigger-happy sprees. 

But that would be a nuance rather than an obvious truth in the backdrop of what is going on in the United States. If the political assassinations of Mahatma Gandhi, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi in India are any indication, Trump's Republicans may be heading for a win aided by what we might call a sympathy wave though that description does not seem to fit Trump, the Republicans or the US. But Trump certainly has a trump card of sorts to play as his clenched fist and a blood-smeared face is an image bound to pull in fence-sitters in the November 5 elections. 

Given that conspiracy theories are floating around still on who was behind Lee Harvey Oswald, the emotionally disturbed US Marine veteran who killed President John F. Kennedy in 1963, stories and rumours on Thomas Mathew Crooks, who was killed by security men after the 20-year-old's attempt to kill Trump, are not likely to die out anytime soon. This is more so as everything gets connected with the elections. Things get complicated by the fact that Crooks has been a registered Republican though he contributed $15 once to a progressive group.

What matters more than campaign noises, however, is the fact that the contest is between a bumbling Biden and a tenacious Trump. 

If strong leadership, especially in a presidential system like that of the US, is a factor, the Republican candidate towers over his rival, despite his conviction in a hush money scandal involving a porn star and a series of past financial irregularities in his career as a real estate tycoon. But he seems at this point to have a teflon coating added to his notoriously thick skin. Former US president Ronald Reagan was called the "Teflon President" because criticism or blame never seemed to stick on him. Like Trump, he also survived an assassination attempt. Trump has now inherited Reagan's teflon image, and the halo of victimhood may add another layer that stops political bullets. 

Contrast him with Biden, who has been the subject of calls to quit the presidential race by his most avowed supporters including big Hollywood stars. Biden's skin is as thick as that of Trump as he has been rejecting such calls, even as he is being virtually laughed out of the race by Internet memes and real stories of his famous forgetfulness.

The Trump assassination bid happened even as the world was bantering over Biden mistakenly referring to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Putin. It doesn't get more embarrassing for a US prez to refer to a head of state at war by the name of the one he is at war with. 

WATCH | Trump rally shooting: Former President shot at Pennsylvania rally

The interesting irony in all is that the US economy is doing rather well, thank you. The Democrats rode to power in 1992 under ex-president Bill Clinton with one of the catchy campaign phrases used by a strategist being "It is the economy, stupid." 

"It is NOT the economy, stupid" may well be the right theme for the Democrats as jobs run high. Inflation is an issue for those chasing food and petrol prices but is on the lower side in the eyes of professional market economists. Pet Republican issues such as illegal immigration, restricted rights to abortion may look stronger to voters. 

Democrats would hit hard on gun control but that would be a valiant attempt to piggyback on rivals. If high-profile leadership muscle comes into the picture, Biden looks profoundly weak, to say the least. 

Overall, I would expect a further decline of the US as a superpower, unless the Democrats throw some unexpected punch with a change in candidate or something. 

The US can hardly be expected to show some superpower muscle when its internal troubles are making it the Divided States of America. Internal instability in the US is a matter of global concern. 

Also read | Trump assassination attempt: It didn't kill him, but will it make him stronger?

Whether it is a prolonged war in Ukraine or the crisis in Gaza, international diplomacy is in a state of drift and that may worsen if the US does not show strong, ethical global leadership. Elections in France and the UK have also thrown up verdicts that show that internal factors may overpower external concerns in the West as a whole. 

Trump is essentially an inward-looking politician, with a clear bias for his abrasive home agenda and old-fashioned white conservatism. He does not have superpower pretense unless it comes to strutting gestures that aid his flashy style or deal-making for American business. 

That should be worrying for those who expect the US to play a judicious, stabilising role as a superpower, a label that looks increasingly doubtful. The coming months are going to be an anxious wait-and-watch period for those watching China's expanding footprint and expecting a healthy geopolitical balance.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)