Is the China-Taiwan conflict resembling the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

You must be aware of the China-Taiwan issue; it's been happening since 1949. On October 1 of last year, when China observed its National Day to commemorate the founding of the People's Republic of China, tensions between the two countries resumed. Over 100 fighter jets from China flew into Taiwan's air defence identification zone during the 72nd anniversary festivities, rattling Taiwanese emotions and raising concerns about a possible military invasion of the island. We must first understand the cause of the China and Taiwan split to fully understand this matter. After World War II, there was combat in mainland China between nationalist government troops and the Chinese Communist Party, which led to a division between the two. In 1949, the communists prevailed, and Mao Zedong seized power in Beijing. The Kuomintang, a nationalist party, withdrew to neighbouring Taiwan during this time. Since then, the Kuomintang has been one of Taiwan's leading political parties and has ruled the island for a sizable portion of its history. China puts a lot of diplomatic pressure on other nations to avoid any actions that could be seen as recognition of Taiwan. Only 13 nations currently recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state.

Taiwan's authorities assert that their country is an independent state, but China regards Taiwan as a part of its territory and is desperate to seize control of it by force. Now the question is, why does Taiwan matter to China? Apart from its territorial integrity, the reason China wants Taiwan is because of its economic capabilities and western influence. You will observe the same thing in Ukraine as well. Why do you think Russia attacked Ukraine? Because Russia doesn't want any military bases close to its borders, it has repeatedly urged Ukraine not to join NATO or any other western allies. Taiwan experiences a similar issue. China does not want Taiwan to be the next Ukraine because China is aware that American and NATO forces intend to erect military infrastructure in Taiwan and China's foreign policy will be directly threatened by it. We should also keep in mind that China is quite savvy and is aware that whatever sanctions Russia is dealing with could apply to China in the future. Additionally, Taiwan's electronic industry draws the largest proportion of its foreign investment. China and Taiwan's economies are highly interdependent, with Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing industry being the largest contract chip manufacturer in the world and Asia's most valuable listed company at 600 billion dollars. With an export value of 515 billion dollars from January 2017 to January 2022, China is Taiwan's largest export partner, more than twice as much as the next-largest partner, the United States. More chips from Taiwan are imported into China than crude oil. This means that China is heavily dependent on Taiwan for the essential components of its manufacturing and electrical industries.

Anyway, we know that Taiwan recognises itself as a sovereign nation. Taiwan maintains diplomatic ties with 15 nations, including major powers including the US, Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, and New Zealand. Consequently, Taiwan's sovereignty is essentially supported by all western nations. Additionally, Taiwan has full membership in the World Trade Organization, the Asian Development Bank, and other intergovernmental organizations. So, if you look at Taiwan, of course they have the full right to be a sovereign country. I am not denying that. However, if you take a step back and look at it from a more traditional perspective, you'll find that the western nations do not support Taiwan because they favour democracy or because they have comparable democratic values. Since the West does a lot of business with China, in recent years it has begun to forge closer ties with Taiwan to keep China in check and prevent it from straying too far from the norm. And if you recall, in 2018—Trump's first year in office—China and the United States were engaged in a continuing economic struggle known as the "China-US trade war." Additionally, both nations have imposed sanctions on one another. As a result of the US-China trade war and the subsequent COVID-19 outbreak, China’s reputation around the world began to decline. Many Taiwanese and foreign companies that were based in mainland China started relocating back to Taiwan because of this. If you see, Taiwan became an indirect beneficiary of the US-China trade war.

So, the western countries do not want to let go of the leverage on China, and the leverage is Taiwan. Because of this, the United States, Australia, and Japan expressed alarm and disapproval when Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare signed the security arrangement with China and extended his country's allegiance to Beijing rather than Taiwan.

Despite US President Joe Biden's comments that he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan, White House officials maintain that the US has not altered its policy. During the Quad Summit in Tokyo on May 23, 2022, US President Joe Biden suggested that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan would result in American military action. At the G-7 summit in Madrid, the UK's foreign secretary, Lizz Truss, recently warned China, saying, "I do think that with China extending its influence through economic coercion and building a capable military, there is a real risk that they draw the wrong idea, which results in a catastrophic miscalculation like invading Taiwan, and that is precisely what we saw in the case of Ukraine, a strategic miscalculation by Putin." Invoking Taiwan as an example, Truss argued that NATO needed to have a global perspective that included democracies outside of its membership. To protect the Pacific, she said, "we need to anticipate dangers in the Indo-Pacific, working with friends like Japan and Australia." "We must ensure that democracies like Taiwan can defend themselves." "We must ensure the self-defence of democracies like Taiwan."China dwarfs Britain, the sixth-largest economy in the world, both economically and militarily, but London still hopes to influence Beijing to abide by the rules of a new, more dynamic international order through the use of soft power and strategic partnerships.

Along with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, which brought an end to the Cold War, China's rapid economic and military development over the previous 40 years is seen as one of the most important geopolitical developments in recent times. Taiwan views the Ukraine scenario as a lesson in how to cope with China's military adventurism even though a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not near. If recent actions by the US and Japan are any indication, both nations are stepping up their efforts to support Taiwan's resolve to counter the Chinese security threat. This is a natural move on the part of the US and Japan, and it provides a platform for other democracies and like-minded nations to contribute to preventing geopolitical instability in the Indo-Pacific. Regardless of how some foreign policy experts portray a controlled West-only situation, the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be felt far beyond the Western world. Due to a protracted border dispute and ongoing standoffs with China, India has maintained a low profile with Taiwan. There has been a widespread belief that any attempt to engage Taiwan will provoke a fierce response from China. Due to their unresolved border conflict and China's frequent territorial incursions into Indian territory, China represents a serious threat to India. It would be appropriate for India to quit paying attention to China at the expense of engaging Taiwan after the Galwan skirmishes, which were preceded by decades of Chinese duplicity and attempts to halt India's development.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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