Modi must avoid Trump trap and walk a tightrope in US poll season

One of the biggest cliches in foreign policy, but a useful one offered in various forms, goes: "Nations have no permanent friends or enemies but only permanent interests." That comes to mind this week amid news that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to meet US Presidential candidate Donald Trump, whose political fortunes seem to be going on a roller coaster ride.

It is notable that it is Trump himself who has announced the forthcoming meeting coinciding with Modi's visit to the US linked to the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly. There is no word yet from the Indian side. The fact that Trump has broken the news himself, but with a forked tongue, is enough for Modi and India to look at the meeting with a sense of caution – and there are other reasons as well.

Trump, with his notorious reputation for crude vocabulary, described Modi as a "fantastic" man but also described India as a "very big abuser". 

“These, a lot of these leaders are fantastic," the Republican nominee aiming for a return to the White House, told a town hall meeting in Michigan. "... You know the expression, they’re at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough.”

Here's the thing: for all we know, Trump with his dealmaker reputation may be describing Modi as a tough negotiator in trade so that he could himself claim credit for acting tough in the American interest. At the same time, the presidential candidate who has been convicted of falsifying business records and accused of inappropriate sexual conduct by women is clearly eyeing Indian American votes. The forked tongue comes in handy when he is trying to impress middle America as an economic dealmaker while praising an Indian PM with an eye on ethnic Indian votes.

Earlier this week, Trump took to social media to post about support from a Hindu community in Georgia. From all indications, his meeting with Modi might be part of a plan to woo right-wing Hindu American votes in his neck-and-neck race against Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee who has emerged to become a formidable challenger to Trump.

In October 2016, three weeks before the presidential polls that took him to the White House in 2017, Trump had declared himself "a big fan of Hindu" at a Republican Hindu Coalition event in New Jersey. “I am a big fan of Hindu, and I am a big fan of India,” Mr Trump had said.

His attempts to meet Modi this month seem like a replay of that spirit.

Trump has never been famous for gentlemanly ways and has to be taken with a pinch of salt. But more than that, Modi has to keep in mind the fact that there is much more to America than Trump and much more to India than a Trump presidency. If the controversial real estate tycoon-turned-self-appointed-America saviour is himself a role model to emulate, the Indian PM should bear in mind his country's interests first – and in that, he should resist the temptation to be seen as a bum-chum pal of the Republicans.

While it is broadly believed that Democratic nominee Harris is not as friendly to the country of her maternal origin as her name would suggest, there is a lot at stake for India – and therefore Modi – to ensure that he is equidistant in domestic politics in the United States. There is no news yet on whether the BJP leader will meet Harris, but many Indians would hope he does. In the current atmosphere, a photo opportunity in which Trump hugs Modi without a balancing image of Modi with Harris may well send a wrong signal across the world.

First up for consideration, there is a see-saw battle for the White House.

Last week, Vice President Harris led Trump 47 per cent to 42 per cent in the race to win the November 5 election according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. But this week, there is a poll of polls that shows Trump pushing ahead. Any which way, you cannot be sure.

With Pakistan and China making Asian geopolitics a tricky business for India, the US remains India's staunchest foreign policy ally, besides being a big power. The US is India's second-largest trading partner after China. Any balancing act that involves everything from border disputes to trade access to China must be what it is – a carefully calibrated move. For this, it is best for Modi not to fall for Trump's dubious charms and make sure that whoever wins in November is on India's side.

Kamala Harris is a clear pragmatist. Her recent remarks on fracking in fuels and Israel's right to defend itself against Hamas in Gaza show that she is not the hardline leftist she is often described as by her critics. There is no reason why India should be targeted on issues such as religious freedom or human rights by Democrats if Modi plays his cards well – and more importantly, with careful precision.

It is also pertinent to recall that prosperous technology-oriented Indians in Silicon Valley, for all practical purposes, are Democrat supporters.

In such a context, Modi must walk gingerly and show more of a firm handshake than a deceptive hug to the world at large when he meets Trump. It is best for India to wait for the outcome of the November elections and also make sure that it would be New Delhi doing business with Washington and not any old political party or individual leader from the US.

Disclaimer: The writer's views do not represent those of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.