South India is being asked to have more babies. Is it sitting on a population time bomb? 

India is now the world’s most populous country.

According to the United Nations Population Fund’s ‘State of World Population Report 2023’, the country's population has surpassed that of China, reaching 1.4286 billion. 

This is approximately double the combined population of the US, Russia, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

Also read | Centre likely to commence population census in 2025 after four-year delay

But, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh Chief Ministers, MK Stalin and Chandrababu Naidu have raised alarm over declining birth rates and a subsequent surge in the elderly population.

Naidu flagged migration by young people to cities and abroad as the reason behind old people being left behind. 

Stalin, at a public event, joked about the possibility of couples having  ‘16 kids’. 

The furore was instant with many slamming the politicians for trying to curtail the citizenry’s reproductive rights for political gains.  [The population of a state is directly linked to the number of seats it has in the Indian Parliament.]

But is South India truly sitting on a ticking population bomb? 

Read to find out!

Regional differences

Total Fertility Rate or TFR is the number of babies an average woman will produce. A TFR of 2 keeps a population stable since two children will replace their parents. The replacement level is 2.1, keeping in mind infant mortality.

All five southern states of India—Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh—have a total fertility rate of less than two, which may signal a declining population and an eventual rise in the older population.

But some states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a TFR averaging around 3.5. 

‘Developed’ states have fewer babies? 

“Decline in fertility reflects a broader trend driven by socio-economic progress in Southern States and West Bengal. These states achieved below-replacement fertility levels nearly two decades ago, aided by advancements in healthcare, education, and overall development.” 

“In contrast, northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are still in earlier stages of demographic transition, with higher fertility rates linked to lower levels of health and educational development” explains S. Irudaya Rajan, Chair of the International Institute of Migration and Development. 

‘Brain Drain’ to blame? 

Migration both, within and outside India, is often blamed for the working population of an area to decline. This is often given the name of ‘brain drain.’ 

However, experts seem to diverge on ‘brain drain’ causing declining birth rates.

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“Migration to receiving countries/states in search of better employment will remain unless the millennials or the present generation of mini millennials find any advantage of staying back in the ‘sending country/state’.” 

“Delaying the fertility window and weighing the limitations of a large family size impacts the fertility rate,” says Dr Sayendri Panchadhyayi, Assistant Professor, School of Liberal Arts and Sciences, RV University, Bengaluru.

“Lower infant mortality, declining fertility rates, and an ageing population are driving this shift. Although increasing student migration has accelerated youth decline, restricting migration is not the solution.”

“Instead, India should focus on building productive infrastructure, and enhancing educational and job opportunities to make staying in India more appealing for young people,” says Rajan.

Old population, new opportunities

A rising population is often seen as a disadvantage owing to ‘senior citizens’ inability to contribute to the economy. 

But this can also offer a country the chance to increase its ‘silver economy’ which “capitalises on the spending, needs, and contributions of older adults through sectors like health technology, pharmaceuticals, and elderly-focused goods and services,” says Irudaya Rajan.

But even healthcare in India comes at a cost with elder-care not being accessible to the lower socio-economic strata of society. 

“Unavailability or scarcity of carers for the ageing population is likely to impact the quality of life and veer them towards seeking non-traditional, out-of-family care [exemplified with the rise in elder-living facilities.] However, this will lend an unfair advantage to those who can afford care versus those who will lose out, sharpening the [socio-economic] divide,” says Dr Panchadyayi. 

Lessons from India’s neighbours

Countries like South Korea and Japan have long been at the forefront of the declining birth rate debate. Japan has noted a decrease in the number of babies being born every year for over a decade. South Korea’s population grew for the first time in three years in 2024, only because more foreigners came into the country!

This happens with most developed economies and societies where having children is not a priority for young adults. 

India may go down the same path but it would need a major investment boost in senior care and helping integrate older people into the economy. 

“India can benefit from studying the best practices of ageing nations, such as Japan’s healthcare model and the Netherlands’ community-based care. Investments in telemedicine, age-friendly infrastructure, and flexible employment options, as seen in the U.S., Canada, and Copenhagen, can guide India in building an inclusive environment for its growing elderly population,” says Irudaya Rajan. 

“Japan has adopted the techno-robotic route to cater to the care crisis of its older population, engineering humanoid care robots,” says Dr Panchadhyayi, highlighting that technology and elderly people benefit from each other.

Should governments tell us to have more babies? 

Countries and governments have often tried to encourage or discourage couples from having children. From India’s mass sterilisation programme in the 1970s to China’s ‘one-child’ policy, almost every populous country has tried to reduce its population. These programmes have not yielded the expected results.

South Korea and Japan have also tried to incentivise people to have more children with special incentives. But this has also not been successful, owing to young people choosing not to have children, or having them very late in life.

There is even a term for young people with two incomes and no kids - ‘DINK’ (Double-Income No Kids) signalling even language being influenced by changing lifestyle choices.

“Governments appealing to families for reproduction come across as paternalistic. This could be viewed as a breach and overstepping into the private family,” says Dr Panchadyayi. 

“Rather than restrictive policies, the government can offer incentives and supportive provisions, encouraging people to make informed reproductive choices that align with India’s demographic goals,” suggests Rajan.

Smoke without fire 

India is a young country with the median age of its population projected to be 28.8 in 2024. As the country progresses, people may choose to have fewer kids. 

But, rather than the country asking them to reproduce more, focusing on improving the lives of those already here, should be priority number one.