The Quad is here to stay

The latest summit of the leaders of Quad, comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US, held on September 21 in Wilmington, Delaware, is significant for all those engaged in monitoring global geopolitics. With its impact on shaping the US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, the plurilateral grouping has both its supporters and detractors. Its leaders project it as ‘a global good’, whereas its critics, such as China, tend to dismiss it as ‘the Asian NATO.’ However, the political and diplomatic investment made in the Quad’s development, especially in the past three and half years, demands an objective analysis of its achievements and weaknesses. On such an evaluation will depend a fair view about its future in the medium term. 

Chequered history 

Experts trace the origin of the Quad to the Asian tsunami of 2004, when the Navies of the four countries made coordinated efforts to help and offer disaster assistance to a large number of people in the affected countries in Asia. The subsequent efforts to develop a new grouping from this beginning were frustrated by the caution shown by Australia (and even India) about China’s sensitivities. But as Beijing’s assertiveness grew in the Xi Jinping era, the Quad gathered momentum. With the deterioration in US-China relations, the Quad officials met together for the first time in 2017 on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila. The four foreign ministers held their first meeting in September 2019 in New York. 

Against this backdrop, the Biden administration fixed consolidation of Quad solidarity at the highest political level as one of its key priorities. Since March 2021, the Quad has held four in-person and two online summits. Since 2019, its foreign ministers have met on eight occasions. There have been meetings galore at the level of officials and experts. What have they all achieved? A detailed response to this question lies embedded in the 5,700-word Wilmington Declaration, the joint statement issued by the Quad leaders. Its last sentence reads: “The Quad is here to stay.” 

The achievements 

The Quad is a close partnership among the four leading democracies of the Indo-Pacific region. Its “shared values” represent its principal bond. It aims to uphold the international order based on the rule of law. It represents two billion people and one-third of the global gross domestic product. Its overarching mantra is to reaffirm its steadfast commitment to “a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient.” While its call for a strategic alignment is broadly viewed as a call to resist the aggressiveness of certain powers such as China, North Korea, and even Russia, its self-projection to support the region’s sustainable development, stability, and prosperity by delivering tangible benefits to the peoples too needs to be taken seriously. The more the Quad governments succeed in such delivery, the more convincing they will prove themselves. That they have secured ample progress in recent years remains an uncontested trend. 

Two specific aspects of the contents of the joint statement deserve particular mention here. 

One, in terms of its geographical focus the Quad is concentrating its energy and focus on three sub-areas of the Indo-Pacific. They are the South Pacific, the ASEAN region, and the Indian Ocean region. The grouping seeks to work closely with the relevant institutions, namely the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), recognising their central importance in their respective sub-regions. The basic idea is to offer them a concrete alternative of cooperation and assistance to whatever China may be offering them. 

The Quad’s way of playing the role of “A Global Force for Good” is to keep expanding its agenda of practical cooperation extended to the nations and peoples of the region. It has become quite substantial and wide-ranging, following deliberations and collective action by governments and the private sector since early 2021. Some of the essential elements of the cooperation agenda are health security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security, quality infrastructure, critical and emerging technologies, climate and clean energy, cyber security, space, and people-to-people initiatives. As regards new or additional elements, one may mention the governments’ resolve to work together on their partnership to combat cervical cancer, evocatively named ‘the Quad Cancer Moonshot’; cooperation among the Coast Guard of the four countries; and the Quad Investment Network (QUIN) to facilitate investments in strategic technologies. Besides, the Quad Fellowships program is being expanded further. 

The contentious issues 

A major endeavour of the Quad governments has been to project their common view on some of the most contentious issues pertaining to the politics of the Indo-Pacific region. Once again, at this week’s summit, the four governments expressed themselves forthrightly about China’s activities in the South and East China Sea (without naming the country), voicing their serious concern over the deteriorating situation. They also had much to say about North Korea, the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts as well as the situation in Myanmar. 

The problem is that these principled pronouncements seem to have little effect on the ground situation. China continues its coercion of the Philippine Navy and others; the conflicts in Europe and West Asia continue unabated, and there is little change in Myanmar. This raises questions about the efficacy and credibility of the Quad. Of course, it needs to be recognised that Quad’s diplomacy has obvious limits, given the geopolitical complexities of the region. 

And the future? 

As two of the four leaders, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, bid farewell on the Quad stage, questions are being raised about the immediate future of this plurilateral grouping. 

There is bipartisan support for the Quad in the US. Therefore, Washington may remain committed to it, regardless of who the next occupant of the White House is, although Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will have very different approaches to follow in dealing with the US partners. Whoever the new Japanese PM is, he is likely to stay on board. Hence, it will now be incumbent on Australia and India to ensure continuity and consolidation in the future. 

India, in particular, may have a pivotal role to play as the host of the next summit, to be held in 2025. But that role will be shaped by the speed with which the Indian PM manages to forge a close equation with the new ‘leader of the free world.’  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers have their work cut out to strengthen the Quad. This message is well-absorbed in New Delhi. PM Modi noted, “We are not against anyone.” He added, “The Quad is here to stay, to assist, to partner, and to complement.” 

Surely the Quad will outlast beyond the Biden era. The only critical point to watch is whether it becomes more effective, impactful, and credible in the years to come.  

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.