Wider implication of China-Taiwan-US conundrum

The status quo in the Taiwan Strait has been changed and disrupted after the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the highest ranking official to visit the island state of Taiwan in the past 25 years. The US House Speaker’s meeting with the head of the State and other high-ranking officials of Taiwan to discuss the “unwavering commitment of the US” to the self-ruled Taiwanese democracy. New agreements for cooperation in trade are set to be inked in the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit.  

The obvious fallout of this landmark visit from a country like the US, providing global visibility to the independence of Taiwan, has allowed China to disrupt the uneasy peace around the island through multi-pronged military drills. 

China has blatantly ignored the median line of the Strait and flown fighter jets across the waters, fired ballistic missiles across the island skies and seas. 

British journalists have opined on the window of opportunity that the US provided to Chinese military officials who have been waiting for “acceptability” in such aggressions. 

This has also resulted in the hardening of stance by both Taiwan and the US in response to Chinese belligerence. A dress rehearsal of sorts for war in the region seems to be taking place with each side conducting its own set of strategic drills in response. 

The visit has wider significance for the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific region where there are already inflamed border and maritime conflicts. German think tanks among others have a consistent view that China could not have planned such extensive live-fire drills in the short span of Pelosi’s visit and hence, shows the premeditated nature of China’s capacity to aggressively ‘conquer’ Taiwan’s territory.
 
Policymakers, diplomats and businessmen are all key stakeholders looking at all updates very closely. The current President Tsai Ing-wen is a hardliner against China. Major Taiwanese corporations with investments in China have been warned to choose a pro-China party such as KMT instead of extending support to Ing-wen. 

Sanctions have been placed upon high-ranking Taiwanese officials after the second US delegation visit. Kurt Campbell. Deputy assistant to President Biden in multiple interviews has spoken about China’s unilateral and unprecedented actions in the region and termed it as an ‘overreaction’ by the Chinese bureaucracy to justify the nature of the military and political response.
 
China has further used this opportunity for muscle-flexing its enhanced military prowess, the world’s largest navy and has created a larger threat perception in the region. This regional significance of this event came to the fore after it test-fired a surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile prior to India-US ‘Yudh Abhyas’ drills set to take place 100kms from the LAC. 

While emphasising their deterrence policy in conducting these drills, China has tried to spread the propaganda of “saving” the Taiwanese public from Taiwan’s ruling party and rejoining them with the mainland as it “historically” should be. However, the Taiwan of today, no longer believes itself to be a part of China. They are a popular democracy with certain rights and freedoms that they have achieved through democratic mandate.
 
The wider significance of China’s acceptability of these aggressions will determine the foreign policy and national interests of Indo-Pacific states. Russia acknowledged the ‘One China Policy’ and thus, led India to state the clear limitations of its support to Russia where its own national interest is concerned. 

Chinese drills entered the Japanese Special Economic Zone as well, which diplomats have opined was done to solicit a response from Japan and predict any such strategic response in the future.
 
Foreign Ministers of both sides have given strong statements with regard to the changing status quo of the region. China’s Wang Yi has made strong statements, calling the US visit “despicable”, and facilitated the cancellation of cooperation with the US on issues like cross-border crime, anti-drugs efforts, and climate issues among the key sectors. 

All high-level dialogues have also been paused between China and the US. Alternatively, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry has given strong but tempered statements where it states continuing to pursue relations with other countries while maintaining peace in the region. They will not keep being pressured into invisibility by China and their ‘One China’ propaganda. 

Security analysts are of the opinion that continued acceptability of the “new normal” in the Taiwan Strait may result in an actual strike in garb of a drill and result in disastrous consequences for the greater region. 

These speculations have many proponents as China has previously broken internationally accepted borders unilaterally over minor issues and continued to aggress using its “salami slicing” techniques before completely changing the status quo and resulting in longstanding heightened tensions. 
 
All the key stakeholders will be affected irrespective of how things turn out as precedents are in the process of being set depending on further responses by the States involved in the region. Thus, it is to be seen whether the sanctions, drills and posturing de-escalate through diplomatic channels or the dress rehearsal in the region culminate into dangerous conflicts. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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