PM Modi’s visits to Poland and Ukraine: The results and road ahead

The two visits have been viewed by experts as India’s conscious and well-designed endeavour to expand its diplomatic footprint in Central and Eastern Europe, as part of its larger outreach to Europe, a principal player in global geopolitics today.

A new kind of discovery of the region unfolded as it was noted that no Indian prime minister had visited Poland in the past 45 years, and Ukraine in the past 31 years.

The fact that the two visits took place at a time when the two-and-a-half-year-old Russia-Ukraine war was still underway, enhanced the complexity and stakes for all concerned, especially the policymakers in India.

They had to navigate, carefully and imaginatively, the known and unknown fault lines as the war has become the leitmotif of the larger Russia-West conflict.

The bottom line for South Block was to deepen mutual understanding and expand cooperation with the countries visited, but without jeopardising the highly valuable and substantial relationship with Russia.

These goals seem to have been achieved to a large degree. Polish PM Donald Tusk depicted the Modi visit as “historic”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X: “Today (23 August) history was made. The Prime Minister of India …made his first visit to Ukraine since our country’s independence, on the eve of our Independence Day.”

Polish leg

During the Soviet era, Poland was an important partner for India, particularly in the defence and economic domains. Then came the end of the Cold War, political change in Poland and some slippage in Poland-India relations, despite a long tradition of Indian studies in that country.

The Indian PM’s two-day visit (August 21–22) hit all the right buttons, including the focus on relations at the government level, business, historical connections, diaspora, and P2P ties. “You have been a good friend of India for a long time”, Modi told the prime minister of Poland.

The joint statement issued by the two leaders committed them to “realising the full potential of ties” between India and Poland. For this purpose, they announced the establishment of a “Strategic Partnership”.

In diplomatic terminology, this is more than a routine mantra; it marks the opening of doors to a multi-dimensional drive for enhancing exchanges, interactions and cooperation in all relevant domains by “deepening bilateral, regional and international cooperation for a more stable, prosperous and sustainable world.”

Also read: ‘Not against PM Modi,’ Zelensky addresses his criticism of Modi-Putin hug while speaking to WION

Several elements of this joint statement are significant. First, on the war raging in Ukraine, a joint call for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace was issued, which must be in line with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

This must have reassured Poland as well as Ukraine that India holds a principled view as it repeatedly calls for an end to the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

Two, a less noticed element is para 14 where Poland has joined India in supporting “a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific” in a boost to India’s and the Quad’s approach to strategic challenges faced in Asia as a result of China’s aggressive approach.

Third, solid mutual interest in expanding cooperation in the areas of culture, education, science, research, and health was included.

Finally, by crafting and revealing the Action Plan to implement the strategic partnership for the period 2024–2028, the leaders conveyed that they expected officials and other role-players to produce concrete results. Reports suggest that the Polish government and strategic community have been highly satisfied with the visit’s outcome.

Confabulations in Kyiv

After a 10-hour-long train journey from Poland to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, PM Modi reached his destination, set to handle the more difficult leg with a combination of sensitivity and clarity.

The program was designed so to give full play to his message of peace, highlighting India’s constructive role in a war-ravaged country that has already paid a heavy price for the conflict imposed on it by the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Discussions between the leaders resulted in what appears to be a carefully negotiated joint statement. It records mutual interest in working towards “elevating bilateral relations from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership in the future.”

The joint statement has two principal pillars. First, it deals with the challenge to ensure a comprehensive, just and lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia. Behind public reiteration by the Indian PM of the need for peace through dialogue and diplomacy, differences between Kyiv and New Delhi persisted.

Ukraine wants high-level Indian participation in the next summit, meaning PM-level participation. It believes that the joint communique on the Peace Framework adopted at the previous summit in Switzerland should be “a basis for further efforts to promote just peace.”

The Indian side has reservations on both counts, given its conviction that the table for peace talks must have the presence of both the warring parties.

In his comments to the media, President Zelensky was quite frank. He suggested that India should stop importing Russian oil. “If you stop the import of oil, Mr Putin will have huge challenges”, he told Indian journalists.

He added: “The problem is that Prime Minister Modi wants peace more than Putin.” He also expressed his interest in paying an early visit to India.

Second, the joint statement spells out the contours of cooperation in defence, economic, scientific, technical, cultural and people-to-people ties. This is a non-controversial sphere. It is presumed that tangible progress in most of these areas may have to await the end of the war, although new steps are likely to be initiated in the coming months.

A significant agreement was to explore the possibility of the involvement of Indian companies in Ukraine‘s reconstruction and recovery “in a suitable manner.” Both sides indicated their keenness to see progress on this score.

India as peacemaker

Both before and during the visits to the two countries, Indian and international media revealed frenzied speculation on whether PM Modi may be requested (and may agree) to serve as the mediator in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Remarks by the Indian side neither confirmed nor excluded the possibility, while consistently expressing itself in favour of the speedy resolution of the conflict through peaceful negotiations that the war has been hurting not only the two warring sides but also much of the world, India’s consistent position.

Peace negotiations have to be between Kyiv and Moscow, but others can play a role in assisting the peace process. PM Modi conveyed clearly that, along with other friendly countries, India is willing to extend “all possible support” for bringing the war to an early end.

Although some in India may nurture a greater ambition, Indian officials are driven by a combination of realism and their close reading of geopolitical stakes.

They may have factored in a fervent plea by Peter Mandelson, a British politician and head of an international think tank, who argued in a recent Oped that India could be “the perfect pacemaker in Ukraine”. Yet they know the realities, the risks and the constraints.

Kyiv and Moscow are not yet on the same wavelength. They may be awaiting the outcome of the forthcoming US presidential elections. New Delhi may do likewise, even as it supports the peace cause as much as it can. Also, it may be noted that South Block’s hands are quite full these days, dealing with pressing challenges in South Asia and elsewhere.

Disclaimer: The writer's views do not represent those of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.